Don’t be an idiot! In Texans Cowboys, bet on the spread, not the money line

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There is no better feeling in the world than risking very little money and winning a boatload of cash. This is why parlays have become so popular in recent years. Why make $100 on a $100 bet when you could make $10,000 just by picking six more games right, right?!

This hope that big bucks could be around the corner at any moment drives some of us to occasionally bet money on the craziest outcomes. This week it’s the Houston Texans. Despite being an underdog by 17 points, 60 percent of moneyline bets for the upcoming game against the Dallas Cowboys went in Houston’s favour. According to OddsChecker US, the Cowboys have a 92.6 percent chance of winning this game, but bettors seem inclined to reach for the massive Houston +1125 odds, meaning a $100 bet will give the bettor extra would bring in $1125 on top of its original investment.

From a purely historical point of view, this doesn’t seem like a bad bet on the surface. Houston won their last meeting against Dallas. The Cowboys have never beaten the Texans in Dallas, and just last year the Texans won two games where they were double-digit underdogs. Additionally, the Texans have lost just one game by 17 points all year – Week 7 at the Las Vegas Raiders. Houston had five such games in 2021, and while their 13-week record isn’t as great, they had far more “close” games in 2022 (considering two touchdowns and a field goal).

With that said, don’t you think it would be wise to bet the spread instead of the moneyline? huh? It’s just a thought. The Texans couldn’t beat the Broncos, Bears or Colts (yes, that was a tie), so what makes you think they could beat arguably the most complete team in the NFC? “Oh, well, it’s just a prayer,” says the delusional bettor, with the money burning a hole in his pocket. Yes, and if I pray for a boat, there’s about an equal chance of it coming true. Of course that’s an exaggeration, but it’s not too far off.

The last time a team with 17 or more points was favored and lost was in 2020 when the Sam Darnold-led New York Jets beat the Los Angeles Rams 23-20, but even those Jets had better odds (+1100) . than the Texans (+1125). Prior to this game, teams with 17 or more favorites were leading 101-10 and the percentage hasn’t improved much since that 11th loss.

I’m not saying it’s impossible for the Texans to win, but it’s highly, very unlikely. Since 2005, only the 2020 Jets and 2019 Dolphins have won after being 17-point underdogs or worse. Every other underdog of that magnitude in that span is 0-27, but overall these 29 teams are 14-14-1 against the span.

SEE WHAT I’M SAYING?!

Despite the recent trend of 17 point underdogs overcoming the odds of defeating Goliath, history is not on their side. If you genuinely think the Texans have a shot at winning but are concerned about betting serious money on it, you might want to consider proposing an alternative line to your bookie. Maybe Texans +10.5 or +7. That still gives you a good payout when it happens, and it’s a lot more likely than QB Davis Mills, who just reclaimed his starting job from Kyle Allen and defeated one of the best defenses in the league.

However, the Cowboys have won four games by more than 17 points this year, and they were far better teams than Houston. If any team can come out of the tunnel and suddenly decide they want to decimate their opponents, it’s Dallas. While I admire the audacity of betting on such a big underdog to win big bucks fast, Texans are big underdogs for good reason. Barring a miracle, tomorrow at 1 p.m. ET, people will see again why Texans suck.