Is Derek Carr of the Raiders the NFL’s next Matthew Stafford?

Does Derek Carr just need a change of scenery?

Does Derek Carr just need a change of scenery?Image: Getty Images

What Makes a Super Bowl-Caliber Quarterback? Statistics? The eye test? system compatibility? It’s hard to pinpoint, and arguably impossible to pinpoint, especially for quarterbacks who have been stuck in dire situations for most of their careers. Matthew Stafford was fortunate to find a way out of his dire situation in Detroit and win a Super Bowl with Los Angeles, proving he was indeed the high-end talent his defenders always claimed he was , even if 2022 hasn’t also gone entirely. I have a strange feeling that Derek Carr could go the same way.

2022 was Derek Carr’s ninth year with the Raiders. Here’s how his nine years compare to Stafford’s last nine years at Detroit on a per 17 game basis:

Stafford (2012-2020) – 63.3 completion percentage, 4659 yards, 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 4.4 TD percentage, 2.1 INT percentage, 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt, 91.1 passer rating, 5.9 percent sack rate, 26 fourth-quarter comebacks, 32 game-winning drives

Derek Carr (2014-2022) – 64.6 completion percentage, 4217 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 4.4 TD percentage, 2.0 INT percentage, 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt, 91.8 passer rating, 5th place .1 percent sack rate, 28 fourth-quarter comebacks, 33 win runs

Stafford was 32 in his final season with Detroit. Carr will be 32 in two months. Both players made the playoffs at least twice (although Carr only played in one game due to injury), but never managed to win a playoff game. Stafford has had four different head coaches in his last nine seasons with Detroit. Carr endured seven. Stafford had arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in years in Calvin Johnson. Carr had Davante Adams this year. He also had a reception corps for several years, including Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Stafford and Carr in numbers

The similarities between these two quarterbacks are obvious and go even deeper than the stats I mentioned earlier. In terms of adjusted net yards per attempt, Stafford scored a mark of 6.44 between 2012 and 2020. Carr has achieved a score of 6.41 between 2014 and 2022. Stafford had 26 comebacks in the fourth quarter. Carr had 28. Stafford engineered 32 game-winning drives. Karr? 33

I’m not saying Carr would be a surefire hit on another team. I would never speak so absolutely. There are definitely some worrying stats with Carr. For example, Carr’s interception percentage has increased from 1.6 percent in 2019 to 2.8 percent in 2022 over the past four seasons. Stafford, on the other hand, stayed where he was, fluctuating minimally between 1.7 percent and 2 percent over his last four years.

Carr’s Raiders have often had a much more consistent running game between Latavius ​​Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Josh Jacobs than Stafford’s Lions with Theo Riddick? Kerryon Johnson? Amir Abdullah? Joique Bell? 35-year-old Adrian Peterson? Also, Stafford was never benched for the likes of Jarrett Stidham. However, this was likely a preventive measure to ensure Carr didn’t get injured and cost the Raiders another $35 million over the next two years.

Despite the concerns, the similarities between Carr and Stafford far outweigh the differences. Carr is young, extremely resilient, and has been an invaluable veteran presence in the Raiders locker room for years. I understand the concerns about Carr’s game this year. With the addition of Adams, he should take a huge leap forward. While Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts experienced tremendous growth with the additions of Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown, respectively, Carr remained stagnant and maybe even declined, but I’d argue this had more to do with head coach Josh McDaniels.

Can Derek Carr turn it around?

As of 2016, Carr has had five different play callers. Here is Carr’s passer rating in the first and second halves every season with every play caller.

2016: 90.1 passer rating in 1st half, 91.7 passer rating in 2nd half – Bill Musgrave was the play caller

2017: 88.5, 79.6 – Todd Downing

2018: 89.9, 97.2 – Jon Gruden

2019: 108.8, 91.6 – Jon Gruden

2020: 110.2, 92.2 – Jon Gruden

2021: 90.0, 97.8 – Greg Olson

2022: 96.6, 73.5 – Josh McDaniels

do you see the problem Carr has proven he can still hurl the ball with effective play-calling, but in the second half of this season’s games, Carr transforms into his older brother, David? I do not think so. That wasn’t a problem in 2021 or the year before that or the year before that and so on and so on. McDaniels mustn’t know how to adjust an offensive game plan at halftime or so because such a big difference is unlikely to be fluke. It’s not just passer-by rating either.

Carr in the first half of the 2022 games:

66 completion percentage, 1852 yards, 14 touchdowns, six interceptions, 7.45 adjusted yards per attempt

Carr in the second half of the 2022 games:

54.96 completion percentage, 1570 yards, nine touchdowns, eight interceptions, 5.74 adjusted yards per attempt

McDaniels held Carr back in 2022, but where the Raiders are too deeply entangled financially with McDaniels to abandon him now, Carr’s departure would be much more money-friendly, and as such he likely won’t return in 2023. However, there are several teams that would massively improve the quarterback by adding Carr to their roster, and he’s definitely worth trying and maybe even a long-term contract. Like Stafford, will he win a Super Bowl right away? Unlikely. Not only is that practically unpredictable, the Rams had a litany of high-end talent on their roster ranging from Andrew Whitworth, Cooper Kupp, Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald. Most teams can’t match this level of all-round talent, but there is a chance.

Carr has been underappreciated and unappreciated for most of his career, and perhaps a change of scenery is just what he needs to emerge from the shadow of the black hole.